5 May 2025

The 2025 Eurovision Song Contest in Basel, Switzerland, is almost upon us. This week rehearsals start, and from next week, on May 13, 15 and 17, respectively, are the first and second semi finals, and then the grand final. In terms of entries, it looks like an even year, with nothing really standing out as the obvious winner, and that’s despite the betting markets suggesting otherwise.

The effect of removing juries from semi finals in 2022 is further manifesting itself. This will now be the fourth year without them and, to no real surprise, the amount of fun and frivolous stuff is only increasing, with at least half the entries this year in that category. Thankfully, no middle aged men are stripping down to their underwear. At most, expect a big-booby Finnish woman swinging on a giant penis-like microphone.

Note, like last year, the automatic grand finalists will perform during the semi finals. Spain, Italy and Switzerland in SF1, and United Kingdom, France and Germany in SF2.

Semi Final 1 – My Top 10

01 Iceland – Vaeb – Roa
02 Poland – Justyna Steczkowska – Gaja
03 Slovenia – Klemen – How Much Time Do We Have Left
04 Estonia – Tommy Cash – Espresso Macchiato
05 Ukraine – Ziferblat – Bird of Pray
06 Sweden – Kaj – Bara Bada Bastu
07 Portugal – Napa – Deslocado
08 Norway – Kyle Alessandro – Lighter
09 Belgium – Red Sebastian – Strobe Lights
10 Azerbaijan – Mamagama – Run With U
11 San Marino – Gabry Ponte – Tutta l’Italia
12 Albania – Shkodra Elektronike – Zjerm
13 Netherlands – Claude – C’est la vie
14 Croatia – Marko Bosnjak – Poison Cake
15 Cyprus – Theo Evan – Shh

In bold are those of only interest to me to make the final. There’s just five: Poland, Estonia, Azerbaijan, Albania and Netherlands. From the rest, I’ll take Iceland, Slovenia, Norway and Cyprus. Obviously, Sweden will qualify, so that’s the ten. Ukraine, due to the usual sympathy vote, is most likely to bump out one of my preferred top 10, and Slovenia would be most at risk.

Semi Final 2 – My Top 10

01 Ineligible Associate Member
02 Montenegro – Nina Zizic – Dobrodosli
03 Ireland – Emmy – Laika Party
04 Latvia – Tautumeitas – Bur Man Laimi
05 Armenia – Parg – Survivor
06 Austria – JJ – Wasted Love
07 Greece – Klavdia – Asteromata
08 Lithuania – Katarsis – Tavo Akys
09 Malta – Miriana Conte – Serving
10 Georgia – Mariam Shengelia – Freedom
11 Denmark – Sissal – Hallucination
12 Czechia – Adonx – Kiss Kiss Goodbye
13 Luxembourg – Laura Thorn – La Poupee Monte Le Son
14 Israel – Yuval Raphael – New Day Will Rise
15 Serbia – Princ – Mila
16 Finland – Erika Vikman – Ich komme

A much strong semi final with eleven entries that I’d like to see in the final. In bold are the top tier ones: Montenegro, Ireland, Austria, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Israel and Finland. Those in italics are my second tier: Czechia, Serbia, Greece and Denmark. Eleven into 10 doesn’t go, so goodbye Denmark. Malta would be the strongest candidate to replace one of my preferred ten, and most at risk would be Ireland or Lithuania.

Automatic Grand Finalists

01 France – Louane – Maman
02 Switzerland – Zoë Më – Voyage
03 Italy – Lucio Corsi – Volevo Essere Un Duro
04 United Kingdom – Remember Monday – What The Hell Just Happened?
05 Spain – Melody – Esa Diva
06 Germany – Abor & Tynna – Baller

A simple rank here from most favoured. France is actually my favourite for the year. Switzerland is my 7th favourite, Italy is ranked 12th, UK is 16th, Spain is 17th, and Germany is 26th. It’s a very strong year for the automatic grand finalists and, in a very rare situation, all perform in their national language.

Betting Market

Taken before the rehearsals started, Sweden remain favourites as they’ve done since the markets opened. They are always favoured before any songs are out, and got a big surge of betting when Måns Zelmerlöw was announced as competing in Melodifestivalen 2025. Even though he was just beaten by Kaj, the betting has remained firm. Beyond the top 5 of Sweden, Austria, France, Israel and Netherlands, the rest really fall away with Czechia a $30 chance. Even Finland, who were an early favourite and remain popular with fans, have faded to a $30 chance.

It’s important to look at the dollar value of the market, not the rank. Especially lower in the market, it doesn’t take much betting to drastically alter the odds and therefore the rank. A sudden surge of bets on Ireland, for example, could bump them eight places and into the top 10. Then, as people bet on other songs, Ireland will slowly slip down. With rehearsals still to come, there still can be a lot of volatility in the betting. Where Sweden get another advantage is that we’ve seen them perform at their national final. Half the songs haven’t performed, and of those that did, many were on lacklustre stages. Comparing songs on an uneven level is ridiculous.

Mr Eurovision Jury

The familiar Mr Eurovision Jury of myself, my sister, and someone called Z, who was found loitering in our rubbish bins this year, are back again. We scored each song out of 10 and these were our favourites. Note that my score is the first one and it breaks any ties.

Finland – Erika Vikman – Ich komme – 23 (8/9/6)
Austria – JJ – Wasted Love – 22 (8/8/6)
Netherlands – Claude – C’est la vie – 21 (8/7/6)
Estonia – Tommy Cash – Espresso Macchiato – 21 (7/7/7)
Ireland – Emmy – Laika Party – 21 (7/7/7)
Denmark – Sissal – Hallucination – 21 (7/6/8)
Sweden – Kaj – Bara bada bastu – 21 (6/7/8)

Next on 20 points were France, Azerbaijan, Spain and Iceland. Last were Portugal with 6 points, then Croatia and Georgia with 10 points.

Eurovision Winner – Prediction

01 Austria – JJ – Wasted Love
02 Netherlands – Claude – C’est la vie
03 Finland – Erika Vikman – Ich komme

I will dismiss Sweden because I believe it’s too frivolous for the jury to vote strongly for it, and that’s considering their usual bias to Sweden. Even for the public, there’s no great allure to it like their recent favourites of Croatia last year (Baby Lasagna – Rim Tim Tagi Dim) and Finland in 2023 (Käärijä – Cha Cha Cha). Also, aren’t we tired of Sweden? Austria is far more a jury song and will get strong support from the public with a good vocal performance. Similarly, Netherlands is charming and catchy, and should get votes from both sides.

Finland is by far the best and most spectacular of the fun stuff, and I expect it to win big with the public. Israel will do well because the Gaza/Hamas conflict is so politically polarising that, like last year, Israel will win plenty of public votes simply as a response to the hostility against them. New Day Will Rise is a very nice song too. As to my favourite this year, France, I’m not sure it will resonate immediately or sufficiently enough with the audience. If Louane can bring a stellar and evocative presentation, then perhaps there’s a chance.

Basel 2025: My Top 37 – All Songs Reviewed

Why I am boycotting Australia at the Eurovision Song Contest