02 May 2024

One great semi final, one terrible semi final, and a mixed bag of grand finalists, that sums up the entries for the 2024 Eurovision Song Contest in Malmö, Sweden. For all the effort the producers have made to try create exciting and interesting Eurovision shows, they lack the control over the quality of entries and the composition of the respective semi finals. If only they could switch songs across the semi finals, it might not look so bad. Let’s not give them any further ideas! For 2024, the producers, indeed, will have more control in the grand final, with 13 producers’ choices added as options into the random draw along with the usual mix of first half and second half options (6 of each). If a country draws one of these producers’ choices, they can be placed anywhere in the running order. The hosts draw a random spot directly, and Sweden drew spot 1.

While the producers’ choice sounds drastic, not much changes in practicable terms. It’s more designed to avoid too many favourites drawn in the first half, as we saw last year with the two big favourites of Sweden and Finland. Producers already signal the favoured songs by placing them late in their respective halves anyway, so nothing changes in that sense. The main change will be to curate the show so that it ideally peaks from songs 12 to 24. Remember, outside the top 5 or so chances, it doesn’t matter where most of the rest are placed. They can’t win anyway. For those top 5, ideally you want them spread evenly, and not too early, nor at the end.

As to that song quality, much can already blamed on the decision two years ago to remove juries from voting in the semi finals. The public go more for the fun and frivolous stuff, and that trend is clearly evident in 2024. The question is: how long until Ireland sends a puppet turkey, Estonia send middle aged guys humping a piano, and Poland send booby women washing clothes and churning butter? Hopefully not too long for one of those.

My Top 37 and Review of all songs here

The semi finals this year will feature the grand finalists performing in full during the semi final itself. A nice touch, as it does put every entry on an equal footing before the grand final as we get to see everyone perform live. Of course, it also facilitates the extension of the total voting period for the rest of the world to 24 hours.

Semi Final 1

01 Cyprus – Silia Kapsis – Liar
02 Serbia – Teya Dora – Ramonda
03 Lithuania – Silvester Belt – Luktelk
04 Ireland – Bambie Thug – Doomsday Blue
GF United Kingdom – Olly Alexander – Dizzy
05 Ukraine – Alyona Alyona & Jerry Heil – Teresa & Maria
06 Poland – Luna – The Tower
07 Croatia – Baby Lasagna – Rim Tim Tagi Dim
08 Iceland – Hera Björk – Scared of Heights
GF Germany – Isaak – Always On The Run
09 Slovenia – Raiven – Veronika
10 Finland – Windows95man – No Rules!
11 Moldova – Natalia Barbu – In The Middle
GF Sweden – Marcus & Martinus – Unforgettable
12 Azerbaijan – Fahree feat. Ilkin Dovlatov – Ozunle Apar
14 Portugal – Iolanda – Grito
15 Luxembourg – Tali – Fighter

As per previous years, I’ve marked each entry hot (red), warm (orange) or cool (blue) until 10 are at least marked. These are my personal favourites to qualify. Clearly, with just three hot songs and three warm songs, the first semi final is a dud. Thankfully, I found four cool songs to complete my ten preferred qualifiers.

My SF1 Top 10

01 Cyprus – Silia Kapsis – Liar
02 Serbia – Teya Dora – Ramonda
03 Lithuania – Silvester Belt – Luktelk
06 Poland – Luna – The Tower
07 Croatia – Baby Lasagna – Rim Tim Tagi Dim
09 Slovenia – Raiven – Veronika
10 Finland – Windows95man – No Rules!
11 Moldova – Natalia Barbu – In The Middle
12 Azerbaijan – Fahree feat. Ilkin Dovlatov – Ozunle Apar
15 Luxembourg – Tali – Fighter

SF1 Prediction

Ukraine is the strongest one I’ve ignored, while Ireland is (somehow) a solid chance. The two to miss out from my personal favourites are likely to be Moldova and Azerbaijan.

Semi Final 2

01 Malta – Sarah Bonnici – Loop
02 Albania – Besa – Titan
03 Greece – Marina Satti – Zari
04 Switzerland – Nemo – The Code
05 Czechia – Aiko – Pedestal
GF France – Slimane – Mon amour
06 Austria – Kaleen – We Will Rave
07 Denmark – Saba – Sand
08 Armenia – Ladaniva – Jako
09 Latvia – Dons – Hollow
GF Spain – Nebulossa – Zorra
10 San Marino – Megara – 11:11
11 Georgia – Nutsa Buzaladze – Firefighter
12 Belgium – Mustii – Before The Party’s Over
13 Estonia – 5miinust x Puuluup – (nendest) narkootikumidest ei tea me (küll) midagi
GF Italy – Angelina Mango – La Noia
14 Israel – Eden Golan – Hurricane
15 Norway – Gåte – Ulveham
16 Netherlands – Joost Klein – Europapa

What a contrast! Six hot songs and five warm ones in this semi final, compared to just six total in the first semi final. I need to lose one to make a top 10 and, sorry, it’s goodbye, Armenia!

My SF2 Top 10

02 Albania – Besa – Titan
04 Switzerland – Nemo – The Code
05 Czechia – Aiko – Pedestal
06 Austria – Kaleen – We Will Rave
07 Denmark – Saba – Sand
10 San Marino – Megara – 11:11
11 Georgia – Nutsa Buzaladze – Firefighter
12 Belgium – Mustii – Before The Party’s Over
14 Israel – Eden Golan – Hurricane
16 Netherlands – Joost Klein – Europapa

SF2 Prediction

Greece and Norway are both well favoured songs to qualify. I don’t see too many redeeming qualities in Greece, while Norway I can understand. Despite the latter stages being a wailing mess, it will stand out. San Marino and Czechia are the two in my top 10 that I suspect will miss out.

Grand Finalists

01 Sweden – Marcus & Martinus – Unforgettable
— France – Slimane – Mon amour
— Germany – Isaak – Always On The Run
— Italy – Angelina Mango – La Noia
— Spain – Nebulossa – Zorra
— United Kingdom – Olly Alexander – Dizzy

Here I’ve simply nominated my favourites, with France the only hot song. Sweden, as hosts, have already drawn to start the grand final first. The rest will be decided after the semi finals.

The Betting

The betting market has been all over the place. Croatia, as one of the early songs released, jumped to huge favouritism until the market realised the juries probably won’t vote for them. So there’s been money for the likes of Italy, Switzerland and Netherlands, with Switzerland the favourite before rehearsals started. Croatia has held strong, and with so many fun songs this year, it’s actually unlikely to be a year like 2023 where Sweden’s Loreen accrued a massive jury vote to leave it impossible for the people’s favourite, Käärijä from Finland, to win. It’s more a year like 2018 where Austria and Sweden were the surprise top picks by the jury, and Israel (Netta with Toy) were able to win overall. I’m not sure Italy is actually that strong to be ranked fourth in the betting, while Ukraine is high due to sympathy again. Netherlands is a fan favourite and quite esoteric, so who knows. It could be one of those fun songs that the jury likes.

Mr Eurovision Jury

Again, myself, my sister, and someone we pulled off the street called Z, these are our favourites this year. We scored each song out of 10.

Austria – Kaleen – We Will Rave – 24 (8/7.5/8.5)
Croatia – Baby Lasagna – Rim Tim Tagi Dim – 23 (8/7.5/7.5)
France – Slimane – Mon amour – 23 (8/9/6)
Denmark – Saba – Sand – 22.5 (7/8/7.5)
Finland – Windows95man – No Rules! – 22 (7/6/9)

Israel, Poland and Sweden were next on 21 points, then Georgia and Latvia on 20.5, and Cyprus and Spain on 20. At the bottom were the Ineligible Associate Member (10), Portugal (11.5), Moldova (12), Ireland (12.5), United Kingdom (13) and Greece (13).

Eurovision Winner Prediction

Croatia – Baby Lasagna – Rim Tim Tagi Dim
Switzerland – Nemo – The Code
Israel – Eden Golan – Hurricane

It’s a tricky year, and the live performances could change everything like in 2014 when Austria (Conchita Wurst) and Netherlands (The Common Linnets) finished first and second. As it stands, the betting market has been quite accurate in recent years, so I’ll stick with that and say Switzerland and Croatia are super strong chances, and edge Croatia ahead based on their song being more instantly appealing and their much superior bloc voting strength. While Switzerland may win the jury vote, I don’t think Croatia will be as far behind as Finland were to Sweden last year, while Switzerland won’t be as popular with the public as Sweden either.

For third place, I’m spotlighting Israel as the one to watch. Despite so much animosity over the war in Gaza following the brutal terrorist attack on 7 October 2023, equally there’s many people sympathetic with Israel. You don’t need a majority of points to win Eurovision, only a solid chunk (Sweden won with just over 15% last year). In Hurricane, Israel have brought a classy and emotional ballad that will resonate strongly.

Malmo 2024: My Top 37 – All Songs Reviewed

Why I am boycotting Australia at the Eurovision Song Contest